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Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Demand for Playstation 4 is Higher then Xbox One

Playstation 4 and Xbox One launches are behind us and both consoles are reported to have sold 1 million units in the first day. With the exact same supply this is a great opportunity to look at resale prices and see which console has the greatest demand.

Econ 101 tells you supply and demand determines the price. We know the supply for both. So any difference in resale price is entirely due to demand.

Below is a chart of PS4 and Xbox One console prices before and after launch.
PS4 & Xbox One Resale Prices After Launch

Both consoles are selling for prices higher than their retail prices (PS4 $399 and Xbox One $499). Playstation 4 prices have been relatively stable in the $580-600 range. Xbox One prices dropped $50 on launch day from $700 to $650.

PS4 and Xbox One have different retail prices so adjusting the chart to show the premium people are paying helps to see the relative demand between the two.
PS4 & Xbox One Resale Price to MSRP After Launch

Playstation 4 consoles have been reselling for 150% of retail price. Xbox One was selling for 140% of retail prior to launch but prices then dropped to 130%.

Prior to launch people expected Xbox One to be harder to find then it actually was on launch day.

Any sale before launch day is based on the expectation of supply, but not the actual supply. To really compare demand between Xbox One and PS4 we need to look at prices after launch because at that point supply was the same.
PS4 & Xbox One Console Demand After Launch

The chart above shows the premium customers were paying for the two consoles with the launch days aligned and the premium paid 1, 2, 3, etc days after launch.

Since launch, consumers have been paying a higher premium for Playstation 4 consoles than Xbox One consoles. With supply being constant at 1 million units each, demand is higher for Playstation 4.

This indicates that when supply becomes readily available for both consoles Playstation 4 will sell more units.


Methodology

The prices for this study are based upon the average resale price per day on eBay.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Video Game Winners and Losers: November 2013

Every month we write an article with a list of some of the games with the biggest increase and decrease in price. We call the series "Winners & Losers".

Winners: Video Games With Biggest Price Increase











More Winners
Robot Alchemic Drive for PS2
King of Monsters for SNES
ActRaiser 2 for SNES
Nosferatu for SNES
Skyblazer for SNES


Losers: Video Games With Biggest Price Decrease











More Losers
Fatal Frame for Xbox
Asphalt Urban GT 2 for DS
Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor for DS
Cradle of Rome for DS
Super Star Kartz for DS


Methodology

The list is made up of the games with the biggest change in price compared its average price in the last two years. We use the standard deviation for the prices to eliminate games that naturally have volatile prices.

For example, a game has an average price of $10 and a standard deviation in this price of $1. 96% of the time prices will be within $8 and $12. If during the next three months the price jumps to $14, then $15, and $16 after that we can be very confident the price increase is statistically significant.

PowerFest 94 For Sale

PowerFest 94
We have listed PowerFest 94 for sale on eBay.....again.

Earlier this year we sold this one of a kind game from the 1994 Nintendo PowerFest competition for $23,100. The buyer was forced to cancel the transaction though after having some financial difficulties.

The game can be yours for $24,000 or make an offer if you think it is worth a bit less.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Will PS4 and Xbox One Consoles Increase in Price After Launch?

With the launch of Playstation 4 (November 15th) and Xbox One (November 22nd) comes the inevitable question for gamers: Will the console be hard to find at launch?

If you think it will be easy to find at launch, you can save yourself the pain of waiting in line in the middle the night for the midnight launch. But if you are wrong, you might need to pay a hefty premium if you want to buy the console any time soon.

Factors to Consider with PS4 and Xbox One

Production
One of the biggest factors determining a console's price after launch is the production of the console and how many will be available.

With the Xbox 360, production was very limited. Resale prices were sky high for the first several months.

Jack Trenton, Sony's Playstation boss in USA, says production numbers are "phenomenal" and they expect plenty of consoles for retailers.

Xbox One on the other hand has lowered shipment projections for the first month. A sign of potential supply issues.

Demand
When the Wii launched in November 2006 there were millions of units available, but it became the must have gift of the year. It was hard to find and prices shot to $500+ from an MSRP of $299. Even in year 2 (2007), Wii console prices were above $500 by the end of November. High demand, not low production kept resale prices above retail prices.

On the opposite end, Playstation 3 sold poorly after launch due to the $599 MSRP. The PS3 was hard to find on launch day, but resale prices on eBay quickly dropped below as $599 as demand dried up.

Prices Before Launch A good people's expectations about prices after launch are the prices before launch.

This isn't a perfect indicator though. Playstation 3 consoles were selling for as much as $1,000 prior to launch. Soon afterwards prices plummeted to $600, the launch price for the PS3.

Below are the Xbox 360 and PS4 Console Prices Prior as of November 13th 2013.

Console MSRP Resale Price Premium
Xbox One $499 $670 34%
Playstation 3 $399 $600 50%

Right now the PS4 is selling at a 50% premium to the MSRP so people expect it to be harder to find than the Xbox One.

What do you think? Will PS4 console prices increase or decrease from now? How about Xbox One console prices?

You can check our PS4 Console and Xbox One Console pages to see the latest prices and monitor how they are doing.

Monday, November 11, 2013

Blockbuster World Championships II Sells at Goodwill for $10,500

Goodwill must be really happy they started their ShopGoodwill.com website.

Normally they would have sold this lot of Genesis games and consoles for $5-10 in one of their stores. But this time it sold for $10,500!

Why the high price? One of the games was the very rare Blockbuster World Championships II.

The game had not sold publicly since 2011.

Goodwill had no idea what it was worth. Bidding started at $1.00 and the game was listed as "NBA Jam Tournament Edition of Judge Dredd" with no mention of "Blockbuster World Championships" anywhere.

This very scenario is the reason Goodwill started their online website, but the reason collectors find fewer great deals at Goodwill stores.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Call of Duty Ghosts for $44.99

eBay is offering 15,000 units of Call of Duty Ghosts for $44.99.

You can choose the console - Xbox 360, PS3, or Wii U.

The page will not show the price, but when you go to make the purchase it will be $44.99.

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