Friday, May 29, 2009

I'm Going to E3. What Do You Want to Know?

I will be going to E3 next week which is always fun. Three days of playing games, seeing future releases, getting free stuff thrown at me, and meeting fellow gamers. During all that fun I plan on writing a few blog posts about some games I'm interested in or might be interesting for game collectors. I will also post some short reviews on my twitter account.

Leave a comment below letting me know what games you are interested in. I will try to get to all of the games and consoles you suggest. Take some pictures, maybe some videos, and give my impressions on the blog and twitter.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Nintendo World Championship Gold Tracked

Nintendo World Championship Gold 1990
For the last year we've had Nintendo World Championship Gold in our database but it has never shown up on the website because there were no recorded sales that we knew of. I have since verified two sales for the NWC Gold cartridge in private transactions. They didn't sell on ebay, but between two collectors directly.

We added these prices to our database for users to see and track because Nintendo World Championship Gray cartridge is the most popular game on VGPC. I'm sure people want to know the prices for the much more expensive and coveted gold cartridge too.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Virtual Console's Effect On Game Resale Values

What effect does the Wii's Virtual Console service have on the resale price of the original games? Does the price drop because people can buy the game on the Virtual Console (VC) instead? Or do more people hear about the game because of the new release which increases the demand for the original too?

We found there is no statistical change in resale prices after Virtual Console games are released.

The games dropped in price an average of 9.6% (see table below) but there was so much variation in the 60 different games we analyzed that statistically speaking it wasn't significant. Here is a chart showing the percentage change for each game.Scatter Plot of % Change In Price After Virtual Console Release
You can see in the chart above that there is no obvious pattern to the changes in price. Some games increased in price, others decreased in price.

Below is a chart that shows the distribution of the price changes. The largest number of games decreased between 0% and -20%.
Histogram for Change In Resale Value

Price Changes For Virtual Console Releases Compared To All Games

We also compared the change in price that we saw for games released on the virtual console to all games during the same time period. The chart below shows the average resale price change for every game (the VC release chart is shown again for easy comparison).
Resale Values for All Games After VC Release
Scatter Plot of % Change In Price After Virtual Console Release
We ran a statistical test to see if the difference between the average change for these two sets of numbers was significant. The test showed no statistically significant difference between the average price change for games with VC releases and all other games. Meaning Virtual Console releases don't change resale price.

Why Don't Virtual Console Games Change Resale Prices

For the Virtual Console to significantly change the resale price of the original games, it needs to change the supply or demand for the original game. It needs to cause more people to buy, more to sell, fewer to buy, or fewer to sell. Here are several reasons why the Virtual Console MIGHT NOT change resale prices.

1. The overlap among Wii and retro console owners isn't very big
I'm sure there are some Wii owners who own an NES, SNES, or Genesis (probably many readers of VGPC), but I don't think the average Wii owner does. Because of this Virtual Console games coming out won't stop these owners from buying the original game or encourage them to sell a copy they already own.

2. The Virtual Console isn't that popular
Nintendo has never released solid numbers showing how many downloads the Virtual Console has for a particular title. Super Mario Bros for NES sold about 40 million copies world wide. If the game was only downloaded 50,000 times, it won't have much effect on the resale price because it is such a small number by comparison.

3. Gamers want to have physical copies of their games
The people who buy the old game cartridges might not want to own a "virtual" copy of a game. If they are only interested in the original cartridge for nostalgia, collecting, or some other reason; the VC release won't effect their decision at all.

Charts Showing Prices Before And After Virtual Console Release

Below are a few charts showing the prices for the original games before and after the same game was released on the Virtual Console. The prices shown are a seven day moving average to reduce daily price swings and make the trends easier to see.
Super Mario Bros 3 for NESSuper Mario 3 Resale Value Before & After VC Launch
Shining Force II for GenesisShining Force II Resale Value Before & After VC Launch
Super Mario RPG for Super NintendoMario RPG Resale Value Before & After VC Launch
Mario Golf for Nintendo 64Mario Golf Resale Value Before & After VC Launch
Earthworm Jim for GenesisEarthworm Jim Genesis Resale Value Before & After VC Launch
Donkey Kong Country 3 for Super NintendoDonkey Kong Country 3 Resale Value Before & After VC Launch
1080 Snowboarding for Nintendo 641080 Snowboarding Resale Value Before & After VC Launch
Ninja Gaiden 3 for NESNinja Gaiden 3 Resale Value Before & After VC Launch

Table of Changes In Resale Price After Virtual Console Release

Game SystemBeforeAfterChange
Super Mario Bros. 3 NES7.1310.2343%
Axelay SNES7.1910.9853%
Sonic 3D Blast Genesis2.521.04-59%
Vegas Stakes SNES0.380.380%
Ecco Jr. Genesis2.972.12-29%
Pokémon Snap N642.213.4757%
Cybernator SNES8.436.84-19%
Alien Storm Genesis1.871.75-6%
Blades of Steel NES0.801.3569%
Donkey Kong Country 3SNES18.2519.959%
Rolling Thunder 2 Genesis7.727.47-3%
StarTropics NES1.200.86-28%
Pac-Attack SNES3.425.4158%
Super Street Fighter IISNES13.9511.15-20%
1080° Snowboarding N643.391.85-45%
Harvest Moon SNES59.9984.0440%
Ninja Gaiden IIINES14.0019.5440%
Phantasy Star II Genesis7.985.84-27%
Kirby 64: The Crystal Shards N6413.3710.91-18%
Super Turrican SNES10.942.44-78%
Spelunker NES2.852.13-25%
Super R-Type SNES1.452.2354%
King's Knight NES1.951.47-25%
Cruis'n USA N643.703.926%
Bases Loaded NES0.320.78144%
Yoshi's Cookie NES3.423.35-2%
Mega Turrican Genesis5.465.4-1%
River City Ransom NES20.3515.12-26%
Phantasy Star IIIGenesis6.739.3739%
Double Dragon NES4.424.09-8%
Renegade NES0.851.4570%
Pokémon Puzzle League N645.284.77-10%
Sky Kid NES3.252.73-16%
City Connection NES1.000.99-1%
Dig DugNES8.008.000%
Donkey Kong 3 NES5.275.586%
Splatterhouse 2 Genesis26.8122.31-17%
Mega Man NES16.9831.9388%
Clu Clu Land NES1.571.9927%
Super Mario RPGSNES38.3233.32-13%
Mega Man 2 NES5.987.525%
Super Dodge Ball NES10.489.98-5%
Vectorman Genesis1.342.4583%
Super Turrican 2 SNES40.6214.62-64%
Mario Golf N648.779.9113%
Shining Force IIGenesis28.3129.324%
Secret of Mana SNES50.6428.8-43%
Street Fighter II Special Champion Edition Genesis1.331.330%
Earthworm Jim Genesis4.348.1187%
Mega Man 3 NES6.498.4630%
Space InvadersSNES2.193.0439%
Forgotten Worlds Genesis4.373.66-16%
Boogerman: A Pick and Flick Adventure Genesis5.075.6311%
Phantasy Star IVGenesis13.9713.15-6%
Zoda's Revenge: StarTropics II NES4.056.0048%
Kirby's Dream Land 3 SNES31.4334.6910%
Castlevania III: Dracula's Curse NES14.485.68-61%
M.U.S.H.A. Genesis107.1259.33-45%
Mercs Genesis3.703.66-1%
Life Force NES3.073.256%

Data Notes: This study includes all Virtual Console games released after October 2007 for NES, SNES, N64, and Genesis. Games released prior to October 2007 are left out because we don't have prices before that date. We also excluded a few other titles released after that date because we didn't start tracking their resale prices before they were launched on the VC.

The "Start Prices" are the 7 Day average price 30 days before the game launched on Virtual Console. The "End Prices" are the 7 Day average price 60 days after launch.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Nintendo World Championship Gold Up For Sale

Nintendo World Championship Gold
A seller on ebay just listed 1 of the 11 copies of Nintendo World Championship Gold. This is the holy grail of video game collecting and ranked as the most expensive video game on several different lists.

The list price is $25,000 which is pretty steep but might sell. In 2007 this game sold with 24 other cartridges for $21,400.

I would have loved to see a real auction instead of a fixed price listing but it will be exciting to see if this game ends up selling.

See Nintendo World Championship Gold Auction Now

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Sega Master System Prices

Sega Master System and Game
Last night we added the Sega Master System to our list of consoles and games we track prices for. We have roughly 300 Master System games in our database and 120 of them have prices so far.

We are also tracking the price of the Master System console itself.

See Sega Master System Prices here



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