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Thursday, January 31, 2008

Wii Will Sell For More Than $400 Next Christmas

The Wii was hard to get your hands and selling online for more than retail during all of 2007. The prices shot up to almost twice retail price during November and December because it became the hot Christmas gift. Right after Thanksgiving the Wii was selling for more than $550.

Wii Price During 2008 - January 31st, 2008
Price and Chart for Nintendo Wii Console

I think next Christmas the Nintendo Wii will be just as hard to find and will be priced much higher than retail on places like eBay and Amazon. I'm willing to bet the price of the Wii is more than $400 next year. Let me explain why.

1. Nintendo DS Was Hard to Find in Years 3 and 4
The Nintendo DS was released at the end of 2004 so it has been on the market for 4 holidays now, 04, 05, 06, and 07. The chart below shows that the DS was hard to find during the holidays in 2007. The price online was more than retail for all three DS consoles (the DS is still hard to find) This next Christmas will be the Wii's third holiday season.

White Nintendo DS Price - January 31st, 2008
Price and Chart for White Nintendo DS

2. Nintendo Produces More DS's Than Wii's
Nintendo are only making 1.8 million Wii's a month compared to 2.5 million DS's. So there is a larger supply of DS's and Nintendo hasn't said they are increasing production of Wii's at this point.

3. WiiFit Is Coming Out This Year
WiiFit is being released in April in the US and I think it is going to be very popular. It is the number one selling game in Japan right now and I think the American media will jump all over the game talking about it. Nintendo will get so much PR it is ridiculous. Anecdotally, three of the casual gamer friends I have who own Wii's said they are excited to buy Wii Fit when it comes out. It will be popular.

4. WiiFit Will Make the Wii The Must Have Christmas Gift Again
All the PR Wii Fit will generate for Nintendo and all the people who talk at the water coolers about how they are on the "WiiFit workout plan", will make the Wii the hot Christmas gift for 2008.

All of these factors combined will make the Wii very popular again in 2008, especially during November and December. Nintendo might increase production some this year, I hope sure hope they do, but I don't think they will make enough to satisfy demand.

My final prediction: Wii will sell for more than $400 during December 2008.

Let me know what you think of this prediction. Do you agree? And go ahead and bookmark this article so we you can see how accurate my prediction was. If I am way off be sure to make fun of me.

5 comments :

mndrix said...

I wonder if we could get InTrade to create a prediction market for Wii Christmas prices. Then we could really put our money where our mouths are.

Great article.

JJ Hendricks said...

That would be an interesting idea and fun too. Maybe closer to the end of 2008 we can see if they will trade on Wii prices or something like that.

TanookiTravis said...

I'll tell you what, I could definitely see that happening. I think, considering Nintendo's extremely conservative supply trains, that they will continue to sell out Wiis going into the next holiday season. The thing is, 1.8 million systems a month isn't really all that much considering the US alone buys about 6 or 700,000 systems a month.

There are plenty of Nintendo games coming out through the year that will keep the systems wanted my the world. Smash Bros soon, WiiFit in April, Mario Kart soon to follow in the summer, and E3 will surely bring a few new announcements for the holiday games.

Anonymous said...

I think you are very correct. Although Wii Fit will probably be more profitable by itself. I'm hearing rumors of major shortages + possibly only 1 or 2 more shipments prior to Christmas. This wouldn't surprise me as Nintendo returns to increase production in Japan where there remains a large demand. Plus, with the decreased value of American $, it only makes good business sense to focus supply on markets with higher currency value.

Anonymous said...

Good article. The charts were very helpful

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