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Friday, December 19, 2008

Prediction Wrong: Wii Reselling for $250

Back in January 2008 I wrote an article predicting the Wii would sell for $400 during Christmas 2008. I got the overall prediction wrong because Wii prices are only about $250 this holiday season. As you can see in the chart below the prices on the Wii are much lower than they were in 2007.

In December 2007 the average Wii was selling for $469. December 2008 the average Wii price is $250.

Although I got the main prediction wrong I did get all the smaller predictions correct, except for one big one. Nintendo supplied a lot more Wii's than expected. WiiFit did turn help make the Wii the must have gift 3 years in a row as I predicted, but I had no idea Nintendo was able to sell 2 million Wii's in November, which is the most consoles ever sold in November (PS2 sold 1.3 million in 2002).

Historically December sales are twice November's, which would put the Wii at 4 million consoles sold. Normally resale prices are below the retail price though, so the Wii is still a bit supply constrained and probably won't be able to double November sales. Because of this I think December's NPD sales data will show the Wii at about 3.3-3.5 million units.

8 comments :

Anonymous said...

Where did you get these numbers from? I have been watching the Wii's being sold on Ebay for about a month now and I have yet to see many go for less than $300. In fact, over the last week or two the majority of them seem to be selling for $325-330. How did you compile your data? Your "article" gives no specifics about anything, with the exception of your ,ahem, very detailed graph.

Robert Carroll said...

The above comment is off-base. If you're patient, you can get a Wii on eBay at/or around retail plus shipping. Most of the ones going for 300+ include an extra controller and games. There's still some exceptions, obviously, but I think the article is on point.

Anonymous said...

To Robert Carroll....Wrong!!! I have been watching these auctions for several weeks now and what I originally posted is what I have witnessed for the basic system, no extra remotes or nunchuks (sp). The ones with the extra remotes and nunchuks (sp) are going for high 300's low 400's In fact, just tonight I have done a little research of nine different auctions and the result is an average price of $329.26. If you account for shipping of around $15.00, then you still have a price comfortably over $300. As for your comment about being patient, yeah if you can wait until January than I am sure you can find one for retail price. Unless you can demonstrate otherwise right now...which you probably can't.

Anonymous said...

I dunno where you are getting your numbers from because I just sold my 2 year old Wii as a 'Used in Box' unit on Ebay with no-extras and fetched $285....

Had it been a new box I'd have done better but even my used one w/o any warranty fetched above retail.

JJ Hendricks said...

Anonymous - Thank you for your comments. The price in the chart above is the monthly average so far in December. The daily prices can definitely fluctuate and it does look like the daily prices on ebay are higher now than $250. But over the course of the month I think the prices are very close to this $250 price overall. There are also multiple Wii's listed on Half for less than $250 right now.

Anonymous said...

I just checked all of the Wii's listed on Half.com and most of them less than $300 are no longer available. Where did you get your sample data? Was it only from Half.com or did it include auctions from Ebay as well? How many samples a day to you use? I think you methodology is flawed and your reporting suspect.

Anonymous said...

This year I personally bought 9 Wiis and 4 Wii Fits. I sold 1 Wii for $320 (on December 27th), but the other 8 all sold for 350-360 consistently from the 2nd week to the 3rd week of December. I also sold those Wii Fits for 140-170, with an overall profit of roughly $600.

Ethan Peper said...

And now in 2012 they are barely selling for $70 so I guess the fad is over.

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